Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.577693 1.639102 1.702870 1.774275 1.852305 1.935334 2.030831
2025-12-07 1.476052 1.554011 1.637332 1.733647 1.842748 1.963541 2.108901
2025-12-14 1.415777 1.505446 1.603405 1.719488 1.854850 2.009774 2.203714
2025-12-21 1.364217 1.461891 1.570449 1.701688 1.858430 2.042965 2.282164
2025-12-28 1.338634 1.445416 1.566139 1.715065 1.897393 2.118606 2.416593
2026-01-04 1.321372 1.436933 1.569700 1.736695 1.946190 2.208229 2.575794
2026-01-11 1.292309 1.412846 1.553029 1.732012 1.960899 2.254333 2.680136
2026-01-18 1.269641 1.395104 1.542724 1.733958 1.983186 2.310744 2.803189
2026-01-25 1.234517 1.360934 1.510800 1.706797 1.965467 2.311213 2.843992
2026-02-01 1.210951 1.339873 1.494022 1.697828 1.970760 2.342907 2.933781
2026-02-08 1.187842 1.318524 1.475952 1.686105 1.971247 2.367166 3.013655
2026-02-15 1.166466 1.298593 1.458857 1.674713 1.971203 2.390057 3.092986
2026-02-22 1.153384 1.289007 1.455017 1.681299 1.997331 2.454615 3.252666
2026-03-01 1.124355 1.258643 1.423663 1.649761 1.967845 2.433021 3.259474
2026-03-08 1.106489 1.241842 1.409192 1.640354 1.969348 2.458792 3.354276
2026-03-15 1.087746 1.223431 1.392049 1.626563 1.963627 2.472535 3.428140
2026-03-22 1.081511 1.220682 1.395086 1.640405 1.998839 2.553788 3.644581
2026-03-29 1.078463 1.221833 1.403129 1.661311 2.045489 2.657560 3.928009
2026-04-05 1.066036 1.210529 1.394258 1.657913 2.054747 2.698676 4.084779
2026-04-12 1.056435 1.202631 1.389654 1.660303 2.072891 2.756444 4.292186
2026-04-19 1.037121 1.181668 1.366972 1.635923 2.047767 2.735167 4.303975
2026-04-26 1.024725 1.169525 1.355916 1.628016 2.048396 2.760516 4.438639
2026-05-03 1.011857 1.156506 1.343360 1.617491 2.044275 2.776684 4.553143